Many of you will be familiar with our article on strategies for under 2.5 goals.
In this article, we want to share more strategies that can add more profits to your betting bank when done right.
Before we get into the details for each strategy, let’s share with you some research sites on the web where you can go, to get stats you’ll need to help with your research and selections.
This article will not go into each site in detail; if we do that, this would be a long read. But we will cover these research sites, and how to use them, in a later article.
You can also watch the video version below
Here are the sites, in no particular order.
Zcode Soccer Buddy Tool.
You can find this page at https://zcodesystem.com/soccerbuddy/. It offers a number of stats on many different leagues around the world. You can use it for research on the over/under goals markets, first half and second half score lines, and their own predictions of the scoreline.
Here’s an extract of a page view
You’ll have noticed that some stats are locked, that’s because this has a very good subscription service, and if you want to sign-up, you can use this link here
The next site you can use is https://www.whoscored.com .
Whoscored.com has detailed statistics for the top 5 leagues in Europe and lots more.
Here’s a preview of just one of their many pages.
If you’re just looking for the over 2.5 computer-generated stats, then this next site will give you that; https://www.over25tips.com
Over 25 is actually over 2.5, they didn’t include the point in the website name.
They also offer computer stats on both teams to score, here’s what the site looks like;
Here’s another data rich site; https://footystats.org
Football stats is an analysis site, with data coverage in over a thousand leagues worldwide including all the major leagues in the UK, Europe, and South America. They also cover live scores, as well as team stats, league stats, and player stats. They have data on a form, goals scored, conceded, shots, xG (expected goals), corner stats, and loads more. Here’s a peek at their site;
You’ll see that some stats are locked, that’s because this also has a subscription service.
SoccerSTATS provides statistics and results on national and international football competitions. Examples of statistics include form tables, scoring stats, statistical previews and goal times.
Here’s a look at their main page;
You can join as a member for a small monthly fee, by doing so the site is ad-free and you are helping to fund the site.
This site is a must-go to site for expected goals. XG, namely expected goals, a metric that allows you to evaluate team and player performance. XG, is a statistical measure of the quality of chances created and conceded by a team or individual players. Understat has detailed xG statistics for the top European leagues. Here’s a screenshot;
Another good site for expected goals is https://footballxg.com.
If you just want to concentrate on the English Premier League, Bundesliga and La Liga, there’s a free download sheet. A paid for version, which is reasonably priced, includes the major soccer leagues around the world.
We use their download sheet when analysing matches for a number of strategies including; over/under markets, BTTS, win to nil. As we mentioned earlier, we’ll be doing a more detailed article on these research sites in the future.
Right, now let’s get back on topic and share with you more under 2.5 goals strategies.
Under 2.5 Goal Strategy Number 1 – Watch The Game for a free bet
Can you actually have a free bet? Yes, well kind of. Here’s an example.
Through using some of the site’s stats previously mentioned, we targeted a match between Montreal Impact vs Toronto as a likely low scoring match. We backed Under 2.5 goals at odds of 2.20. As the game progressed we placed staggered lay bets into the markets at different odds points, which as they were matched, reduced our exposure, or liability. As you can see, with three staggered lay bets equal to the back stake we secured a free bet on under 2.5 goals, and there was still 70 minutes of match time left.
We covered the bet stake of £40 and our liability was £35.72. We won £48 and paid out £35.72, so locking in the profit. Had the match ended with 3 or more goals we would have received the lay bet winnings of £40 – which is how we got the free bet.
Here’s a screenshot of the match stas using Sofascore.com
You can see it was a low action game and under 2.5 goals was supported by our pre-match analysis.
In fact, you can see that the first half had no shots on target at all.
Under 2.5 Goal Strategy Number 2 – Lower Leagues do have value
Having done some research, we’ve found potential value in the under 2.5 goals in leagues where you are likely to find varying levels of quality. For example, in English League 2 it’s possible you’ll see a match with loads of goals, and it’s also just as likely that both teams may not score on that day.
This is also true across some of the main leagues in smaller European leagues or other national leagues, especially where their top players ply their trade in the major professional leagues, like English Premiership, German Bundesliga and Spain’s La Liga.
With just a little more research it’s possible to identify great value at times. One way to research will seem counter intuitive. What do you do? Look for two teams who are playing each other whose recent matches have been over 2.5 goals. In leagues with less skilled players, and where there’s less money to have large squads, it’s not easy for teams to maintain consistency through the season. They have injuries, suspensions and less opportunity to use squad rotation.
So why not have a go, do some research and find some lower league matches where there may be value in under 2.5 goals.
Here’s some extra ways to improve the probability of success using this system;
- Change the number of recent games; maybe 3 recent matches over 2.5 goals for the home side is too many – or maybe it’s not enough
- Consider adding other criteria; like xG or goals conceded
- What about the odds range – there may only be value when the odds are above or below a certain level
- Check the over goals markets such as the Over / Under 1.5 or maybe the Over / Under 3.5, or maybe there’s value in betting the draw
Under 2,5 Goal Strategy Number 3 – Use tipsters or site predictions
This is kind of a strategy of strategies. There are many sites and email services you can sign up for that provide either tips for sports markets or predictions for outcomes. Using the tips and predictions in certain markets you can find matches that have a good likelihood of ending under 2.5 goals.
Method 1 – Predictions for Under 3.5 goal market
Here you’re looking for tipsters or predictions where under 3.5 goals is recommended or where the forecast odds are below 2.0.
Now use some of your research sites, like the ones we shared earlier, and check out the correct scores. Now you’re looking for matches where predominantly less than 3 goals are expected. Essentially, the majority of tipsters or predictions fall within the scores of 0-1, 1-0, 0-2, and 2-0.
When used properly it’s possible to get a success strike rate of 88%.
Method 2 – Trade or Scalp the first half of markets
Simply a variation on method 1, use the method 1 strategy and apply it to the first half market. You can find tipsters and half-time predictions online so this is easy to do.
Method 3 – Back / Trade The 0-0 Correct Score
Same approach as with method 2, but instead of under 2.5 markets, you back or lay the 0-0 halftime score line. If your research suggests a goal is going to be scored in the first 45 minutes then lay 0-0, if your analysis leans towards no goals, then back the halftime result correct score of 0-0.
Method 4 – Dutch The Correct Score Market At Half Time
What is dutching? We go into that in another article. So let’s assume you’ve done your research and it suggests that in this match you can expect the team leading at halftime to go on and win the match.
By understanding the probabilities of goals in the second half, we can dutch certain correct scores to generate a profit.
Historically data shows that in matches where the score line is 1-0 or 0-1 at halftime, 76% of those games will have a maximum of 2 more extra goals.
Using this knowledge and having done your research on the teams, you can simply dutch the current score and a few additional correct scores that are within 2 goals of the current score.
You have to back the correct scores first and either let them run or trade out sometime in the second half.
Here’s an example;
At half time it was 0-0 between Atalanta and Inter Miami. By backing the 5 score lines around the 0-0 scoreline, we were able to secure five scoreline’s and walked away with a 25 unit profit for the match.
Remember not every match will fall into this scenario, you must do your research first. By using the tips and predictions given online or by email, you can quickly narrow down your shortlist and do your own due diligence to find probable match conditions that meet the criteria.
That’s it for now. We hope that this article has shown you there are quite a few options when betting using the under 2.5 goals market.
As well as football systems, there are multiple ways you can take advantage of the content inside MBT Sports membership and create your own proven systems in various sports.
Now we want to turn it over to you.
Which of these under 2.5 goals strategies do you think you’ll look into first? Are you going to take a look at the lower leagues for inconsistent form or will you go for the in-play half time methods? Either way, let us know in the comments.
You can also learn more about our Over 2.5 goals strategy here.