Know the Odds Before You Bet: First Half Markets

If you are a regular watcher of football, no doubt you have noticed that usually very few goals are scored in the first half of matches. Most professional sports gamblers and traders will often split their bet and trade strategies between the first and second half periods.

 

Historically statistics show that teams are more likely to start a game solidly with the intent being to avoid conceding an early goal. This is especially true of underdog teams. That said however, there isn’t that much of a gap between first-half and second-half goals as you might have thought.

For example, typically the English Premier League sees around 45% of goals being scored in the first half. Overall, 67% of games saw at least one goal scored in the first half and 25% had two or more goals in the first half.

As we go into the strategies, give consideration to the following statistics as they relate to football scoring rates and how they influence the markets. Just knowing this and applying that knowledge will put you on par with professional gamblers and sports traders:

• 78% of football matches final score will end with at least 2 goals (over 1.50) 
• On average,1 goal is scored in the first half
• On average, a little under 2 further goals are scored in the second half
• Most first half goals will come between the 15-45 minutes

 

What you should consider when betting & trading the first period of matches.

Keep it Tight at the back

For example, Brighton have a reputation for being solid in defence when away from home conceding just one goal conceded in the first 15 minutes last season. This defensive start also meant they also scored none! Low scoring away teams will clearly influence the likelihood of a low scoring first half.

Last 15 minutes of either half.

For example, in the English Premier League 2019/20 season, 19% of all first half goals were scored after the 31st. Only the last 15 minutes of the second half saw more goals, partly due to weaker teams being tired and also in part because time added on past the 90.

This trend is not unique to English football either. The percentages may vary slightly, but in general terms strong teams score more goals after 31st or 76th minutes of the halves.

First Half Betting & Trading Strategies

I can’t stress this enough, as always for any strategy you plan to use, always do your due diligence and wherever possible paper trade a few matches before betting or trading for real. Paper trading helps you gain experience when using a new system, without the risk of losing your hard earned gains. It also helps with confidence once you understand the systems.

This table shows the percentage of matches where at least one goal has been scored in either the two halves. That means under 25% of matches end in a 0-0 draw.

1st Half goals		2nd Half goals
0.5	75.15%	0.5	80.66%
1.5	39.7%	1.5	57.2%
2.5	13.6%	2.5	24.2%
3.5+	3.2%	3.5+	8.8%

Strategy; The Under/Overs first goal markets

First Half Under/Over market

Selection Under 2.5 goals

If your analysis leads you to conclude that a match is likely to have a slow start, or that both teams will be cautious, you can bet on the first half goals being under 2.5 goals.

Over/Under 2.5 match goals

If you prefer to trade that same scenario; you determine that a match is likely to have a slow start, or that both teams will be cautious, you can back under 2.5 match goals with the intent to trade out in-play. Depending on the match and the liquidity of the market, It is also possible to leave a trade within 15-20 minutes of the kick off with an okay profit, just as long as no goals have been scored.