Here is a simple system you can use to profit from football matches on the betting exchanges.
As you know, we at MBT Sports love strategies that are based on improving the probability of a win, especially when it’s backed up by historical data and results. Just like The Two Trap Greyhound System, this is another mathematical probability edged strategy for you.
Some of you may already use laying the draw, a well tried and established trading system.
And, because of that there is little value left in the system and bookmakers and exchanges will rarely move the price of the draw, after a goal is scored, enough to make it profitable to trade from the start of the game.
This strategy works by only trading in-play during the second half.
In simple terms; you simply look to see if a match is drawing at half time. If it is, then you can place a lay bet on the draw.
You have to look for matches that are likely to be high scoring, by looking at the odds of the current score.
For example, if the match is 1-1 at half time, look in the correct score market at the odds of 1-1. If they are above 4.0, then there is a good opportunity to trade. This means there is only a 25% of there not being another goal and a 75% chance that there will be.
The below screenshot shows the game between Torino v Roma in Italy’s Serie A.
You can see it’s half time and the game is 0-0. Roma have been pressing for a win, according to the match stats, but have failed to score so far.
The lay the draw odds have dropped down to a respectable 2.36, good enough for you to consider a trade. By placing a lay bet at 2.36 for a liability of 10.15 points (or pounds in the image)
You can now sit and watch the second half unfold, waiting for a goal to be scored.
In this match, in the 58th minute Roma scored a penalty, giving them a 1-0 lead.
Here’s what happened to the odds:
As you can see, the draw odds moved out to 4.3 after Roma’ goal, allowing you to use the “cash out” button for a profit of at least £3.45.
With this system, as it’s in play and you are supported by probability and historic data, the later a goal goes in, the more the draw odds will jump. If there’s a very late goal, then the price will rise accordingly and you can lock in even better profits.
How do we know this? Well the statistics, showing there is likely to be a late goal, are significantly in your favour.
Take a look at the stats from the last couple of seasons in the English Premiership. Take a look at the site; www.soccerstats.com website:
Premiership 2019-20 (i.e. as at April 2020)
Now the figures for the Premiership season 2018-19:
You can see the difference between goals scored in the first 15 mins versus the last 15 mins – 118 more goals were scored in the last 15 mins.
And this is not exclusive to just the English Premiership.
In Italy, here are the stats from Serie A for the 2019-20 season:
As you can see, they are very similar to the Premiership.
And for Spain’s La Liga for the 2019-20 season:
The stats clearly show the chances of a goal increasing as the second half progresses, in this case 24.2% of goals coming in the last 15 minutes.
A similar picture in the German Bundesliga for 2019-20:
You will see these same trends run through all leagues, it’s how modern football is played.
Individual Team Stats
Also, when you have time, it can pay to look at teams who tend to score lots of late goals.
This can improve your strike rate and profitability even further.
Here is an example from the soccerstats.com website. It is Manchester City for the 2019-20 season (up to mid-April):
As you can see, they fit the pattern very well, scoring lots of late goals – i.e. 22 compared to just 11 in the first 15 mins.
It can really pay to do your research and select teams that have a tendency to score late goals when trading this system.
As this is a lay strategy, always be sure to trade markets with good liquidity, it helps for you to be able to watch the match and be ready to trade out immediately after a goal is scored and avoid getting caught out with an equaliser.
That’s it, lay the draw in the 2nd half, an easy to follow and apply strategy.
Good Luck.