In this article we are going to share with you several top tips, you can use today to effectively exit your lay the draw trading positions.
While the method of lay the draw may guarantee profits, people still face a significant challenge. How do you know how and when to exit, that’s trade out, of a position? Is it when either team scores a goal, or do you let the game run up to the very end, or are there other options?
Deciding when to trade out, or exit a lay position, depends just as much on your attitude towards risk, as it does on how much profit you want to make.
As with all forms of trading, whether that’s sports trading, forex or day trading the stock market. There is no single exit strategy that works for everyone.
Before we get into that, let’s go over what the lay the draw system actually is.
Lay The Draw System
In simple terms, to lay the draw, you find a match with two evenly matched teams that have a recent form of conceding goals, you lay the draw early on in the match and then trade out once a goal is scored.
MBT Sports Pro Tip: Do not use this system with cup matches, since form and teams are more difficult to analyse and predict form.
Here’s a checklist of things to consider when preparing to trade a lay the draw selection.
First of all, make sure the match will be in play for trading during the match. You need to be able to trade out your lay bet during the match.
Make sure there’s good liquidity in the match market, you’ll need this in order to be able to trade out.
Next check the recent form of the two teams. Remember, when doing your analysis of the teams, that you make sure you are comparing league form in the competition in which the current match is being played.
MBT Sports Pro Tip: This is based on probability, not on form. If either team or both have played 2 consecutive drawn matches, the probability of a third is low. This improves your odds of a winning lay bet.
Next is to use a regular online bookmaker, not a betting exchange, and look at three sets of market prices for the match. The match result market of home win, draw, and away win. The Over 2.5 market. And the correct score market odds for 0-0.
For the match market, find the matches where none of the three outcomes back odds do not exceed 3/1 or 4.0 in decimal.
Now look at the over 2.5 goals market. You want to see that the odds for Under 2.5 are lower than the Over 2.5 goals market. This means the bookies expect that there will be goals.
Here’s an example in the Liverpool v Chelsea match:
The odds for 1X2 are 2.40, 3.25 and 3.0 and for under 2.5 goals is 1.8 and over 2.5 goals is 1.95. The bookies don’t expect many goals but since the over 2.5 goals is below evens it suggests that they expect a goal or two.
Next look at the correct score market, specifically the 0-0 scoreline odds, this is easy. Any 0-0 correct score odds at greater than 11.0 indicate bookmakers expect a goal.
Now compare the recent goals conceded form of each team. Make sure to check their last few matches, say up to 5 games. Do this for all matches as well as the most recent home matches for the home team and away matches for the visitors. Make a note of the teams they have played against and the position each team currently has in the league.
Now with all of this analysis completed, you should be comfortable enough to decide whether or not to lay the draw. You have a few options here.
You can let the first half play out, and at half time, if the teams are at 0-0 you could lay the draw and wait for the goal. Why wait until half time? By doing so, if it’s still 0-0 the odds for a draw will have shortened,, and since you are laying your bet your liability is lower.
MBT Sports Pro Tip: When laying 2nd half matches, check the teams 2nd half performances. You want to find teams who either score or concede goals in the second half, usually after 60 minutes.
Take a look for example:
At 3.5 Lay the draw the liability is £125
After half time at 0-0, around the 60th to 70th minute, the draw odds will drop as low as 2.0 and at this price your liability will be £50
That doesn’t matter much if you are going to trade out. But if you were to let it ride through the remainder of the match, if the match ends in a draw you lose your £50 (not £125). If it ends in a win for either side, you will profit by £50 less the exchange commission.
This strategy takes a bit more analysis to be done, you need to look at the stats for the first half to decide if there’s likely to be a goal in the second half. You can also check the 2nd half form of the two sides in their recent matches, both goals scored and conceded. All of this will help with your decision to lay the bet or move on to another match.
As you can see this approach works best at half time. And only if the score is 0-0. If you are confident that your analysis was right and a goal is expected, you could just let the match play out and take your full profit, rather than trade out and lose some of that profit. That is really your choice, based on your own experience and your appetite for risk. If you choose this strategy we recommend you stick only to 0-0 half time draws. A score draw is too high risk, remember you picked two sides that concede a lot, they may also not score too many either. If they are usually goal shy, you could well lose a score draw half time lay the draw trade.
You place your trade either before kick off or after 10 minutes, by which time you’ve seen some movement in the match market. If a goal is scored in the first ten minutes leave the match alone and go to another on your list. Some days you’ll have several potential matches on which to trade and make decent profits.
This requires you WATCH the match as you’ll be trading in play and most likely at a crucial point in the game.
Look for signals in the game; a team may be having a lot of attacking possession, or there’s an attacking substitution or maybe one team has a corner or attacking free kick. You have to have your trade ready to place before the betting exchange suspends the action. Usually when a team is in a good position to likely score, betting exchanges will suspend all markets until that event in the match is over.
If you’re just starting in trading we don’t recommend you start with this, you need to be in control of your nerves and be confident in your trading in play abilities.
Lay The Draw Exit Strategies
With any of the lay options above you have a few options; stay in to the end of the match in the expectation one side will go on to win the match. Or look to trade out the match either when a goal is scored or when you feel deadlock is going to be the result. In which case you want to minimise any loss.
The best time to trade out to lock in a profit is as soon as a goal is scored and the markets open up again in play. Here’s what happened to the odds in the Liverpool Chelsea game once Chelsea took the lead:
The odds moved out, this gives you a profit opportunity by trading out through backing the draw.
Since you placed a lay bet at 3.5 with liability of £50
If your back bet wins you’ll make a profit of £25. Simply put you receive £150 for the back win and pay out £125 for your lost lay bet of £50. Making a net profit of £25 less some commission.
The underdog scores first
The scorer of the goal just might be the underdog. So where does that leave you? Do you expect the favourite to come back and score at least two goals? If you’ve been following the match you’ll have a sense of the play and a feel for the likelihood of that happening. What you do will also depend on the goal time. How much time is left for the favourite to score more than one goal? You decide what to do.
The favourite scores first
The other scenario is the favourite scores. In which case the reverse is true, you’ve been following the match and the stats. Do you expect the favourite to go on and score more goals? Again, what you decide to do will depend on the goal time. How much time is left for the favourite to score more goals, has the underdog looked likely to snatch a goal? The decision to trade out or ride the match for more profit is up to you.
Waiting for the a 2nd goal lead
Not for the faint hearted and definitely for the more experienced trader. Simply put, if you feel the winning team will go on to score a second goal, stay in the market and trade out after the 2nd goal. You will lock in more profit in doing so.
MBT Sports Pro Tip – you can partially trade out of a lay bet by simply backing the draw at a stake amount enough to keep you in with winning more lay money and covering liability.
Deadlock, goal shy matches; heading for 0-0
But, what if no goal is scored as the game goes on? Then you have two options. Trust your analysis expecting one side to sneak a win and run the risk of losing the lay bet and paying out the liability, in the Liverpool v Chelsea example that’s £125.
Or you can trade out by backing the draw. And again you have two options here; either at 70 mins of the match played regardless of the odds. Or when the back odds for the draw are at 2.0. Either will limit your liability but not cover it.
Double Chance your way out of the draw
This exit strategy will remove all risk from the draw as soon as a goal is scored. You place a back bet on the draw sufficient to cover the lay bet to close to zero. Which effectively gives you a double chance back bet if either side wins. If the match ends in a draw you will not make a loss, but you won’t make money either.
These are just some of the exit strategies you can use when using the lay the draw strategy for in play football matches.
If you’re new to sports trading we recommend you start with the smallest stakes you can, and just consider your first trading as experience, any funds lost are just paid for lessons on how you will improve on the way. Take your time learning how to do this or any other new system. It’s better to lose small amounts while gaining experience than lose large at the start which will destroy your confidence and your betting bank!
Spread your risk – trade only one match at a time, you can do several matches during the day, if they meet the criteria. It’s always best to choose different kick off times or even to have two or three options so if you are able to trade out early you have another match, perhaps for Option one earlier, and trade at half time. With lunchtime, afternoon and evening kick offs you have a number of chances to trade on.
Remember the golden rules; ‘never trade (gamble) with money you can’t afford to lose’ and ‘when the fun stops – STOP’! Even with a good strategy, there are no guarantees of success in any form of trading, whether that’s sports, day trading or forex trading.
There you have it, our top exit strategies when Laying The Draw.
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Now we want to turn it over to you. Which of the exit strategies will you use first? Are you going to use after the first goal or have you got nerves of steel and you’ll trade out only when the winning team scores a second goal? Either way let us know in the comments section.
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