Qualifying Races are:-
- Flat or National Hunt Chases only – NOT National Hunt Hurdles.
- Runners must be between 4 to 8 runners.
- Identify the horse with the longest odds – ie the outsider, or longshot.
- Longshot odds < 25-1 (26.0)
- Odds >15/1 but < 33/1, halve the stake
- Odds > 33/1 (34.0) = NO BET
Our selection will be this longshot outsider. No doubt you are asking why would we back an outsider?
In small fields, no matter what the quality of the field is, regardless of whether or not it is a Flat race or jumps, there are many races where the horses don’t run to the race; like a three mile chase turns out to be a five furlong sprint!
History and statistics back up this method. And has indicated that hurdles races should be excluded. Why are they excluded? Very few Handicap Hurdle races have less than 9 runners and those that are less than 9 usually have just 4 or 5 runners and the prices are all pretty low, there rarely is a true”outsider” in these races and so they are best avoided.
Placing the bet: STAKING ADVICE.
Because of the longshot odds that we can expect with a winner from this system, you need to run a recovery strategy, so that you recover your lost stake as part of your next wager. This s easy to do and the MBT Sports Calculator can also help if you need support with calculating the recovery of the stake and to include a profit.
To illustrate;
Race 1 odds of 11 stake 5 points = result loss, down 5 points
Race 2 odds 8 to recover your lost 5 points stake simply divide 5 by 7 = .71, your stake in Race 2 at 8.0 odds is now 5.71 points if race 2 wins you make 7 x 5 points profit plus your initial 5 points stake and you recovered your lost 5 points using the .71 point recovery.
Recovery will work perfectly adequately using this staking method, but feel free to use your own system.
Top Tip
Where possible, delay placing your bet until the last possible moment, because the price of the longshot does tend to drift out just before the start.
Two Longshots? When there are two horses tied as outsiders, then back them both, the odds will permit this.
More than 2 longshots = NO BET.