This strategy has been developed and analysed over many years and is shown to be very successful, but only for football.
Do not apply this strategy to other sports.
In the UK, football now accounts for more gambling income than any other sport. Most of the people who gamble on football do so based on opinion and/or emotion.
By using betting exchanges and placing yourself as the bookmaker, it is these amateur gamblers whose money you will be taking.
This strategy has no interest or opinion on the outcome of a match at all, it’s based solely on historical statistics and probability. Those of you who already have reviewed The Two Trap Greyhound System will be familiar with that foundation for a successful system.
If you’re new to laying bets on the betting exchanges, then start with a laying balance you can afford. Start at a level you are comfortable with and grow your income from this strategy over time, using other people’s money.
The Strategy
When laying on an exchange you are essentially taking the role of a bookmaker, trading on one outcome, and only one outcome of a football match only, regardless of the teams that are playing.
Stats: over the last 15 years only 22% of the world’s football matches have ended in draws, therefore 78% have ended in wins for one team or the other.
Stats: of these 22% draws, just 7% ended in a no-score draw.
This trading strategy will allow the opportunity to make money on the 93% of matches that don’t end goalless. Hence why the strategy is called the 93% Trading The Draw.
In simple terms, this strategy will make you a bookmaker that offers the draw and then makes money when a goal is scored.
The screenshots accompanying this article are from betfair and are for illustrative purposes only, feel free to use your betting exchange of choice.
STEP 1:-
Find the in-play market and filter just on ‘Football’ as below:
For the strategy to work, you have to be able to trade when the selected matches are live so you will need to note kick off times as well.
IMPORTANT – only pick games that haven’t yet started!
In the above screenshot you can see the in-play coupon for Wednesday’s matches.
Don’t be concerned with teams you have never heard of.
The important part of the coupon is the middle two columns under the ‘X’ symbol, the blue column (column 3 of the 6) is the ‘back’ column. If you were expecting a draw the blue column is where you would place a back stake. But since this strategy is based on a 93% probability the match will not end with a no-score draw result, you are looking to lay the draw using the pink column (column 4 of the 6), and secure your profit in-play.
Looking at row 5 in the above screenshot you can see Livingston Vs Aberdeen and the draw column odds for laying is currently at 3.2. If you were to lay the draw the screen would look like this;
A 10 point lay trade would expose a liability (or potential loss) of 22 points, but if the result is anything but a draw you would make a profit of 10 points (less a commission), as you would keep the stake matched by the people backing the trade.
STEP 2:-
Finding your initial trade(s)
In order to minimise any liability it is best to trade in matches where the lay odds for a draw are 4.2 or below.
In the above screenshot you can see 9 matches with lay odds for the draw below 4.2. As you are only prepared to risk 3.2x the amount of money you want to win.
CAUTION: It is very easy to see a top 6 side playing a lower placed side where obviously all the statistics point at a top 6 team win. So obviously the draw odds in such a game could be as high as 9.0. Even though you expect the top team to win, this is football and anything can happen, a freak penalty, a red card for example. Why risk 8 times your stake, which is what a lay figure of 9.0 equates to?
Ideally, you don’t want to try to trade all of the qualifying matches, the exposure of liability is high and you may not be able to trade in-play at the appropriate time to close out the profit.
Ideally select the 4x lowest lay bet matches as your preferred trades. Remember also that you will need to be able to trade in-play, so make sure you aren’t planning to be away from your pc anytime during the matches. Make sure you noted the times of the start and when the last match finishes.
Let’s use the earlier match as an example for trade; Livingston Vs Aberdeen
You have entered 10points as your stake and the liability is 2.2x 10 = 22 points, if you just allowed the trade to run through the match. If the match ends in a draw you would have to give someone £22, but you receive £10 if the match result is anything other than a draw.
Place the trade and then repeat this process for the next 3 matches.
IMPORTANT: Your account must have enough liquidity to cover the lay trade liability – not the stake! Since if you were to lose the trade you have to pay out the liability. Make sure that you have sufficient funds to cover all 4 trades before you place your first trade.
STEP 3:-
In-Play Trading
This is how you improve the probability of winning from 78% to 93%, by trading out during in-play.
When the game starts the odds will begin to move, if no goals are scored the price for the draw will come down, that means the two figures will go lower. For example if you take the match we are using as the example; the lay odds were 3.2 to lay the draw, and if after 20 minutes the match was still a draw, the odds could drop to 2.78 and by half time it could be as low as 2.58 (you will have to take my word for this).
NB: When something significant happens in the game the trading market will suspend automatically. This will happen for many reasons including when a goal is scored, a penalty is awarded or a player is sent off. All these factors can affect the outcome of the game and therefore affect the prices that are available.
If the home team scores, the likelihood of a draw becomes less, so the price for the draw will generally increase.
This is where you can now look to make your profit.
When the suspended market returns, the on screen prices will have changed. you now wait for the prices to move in your favour so that you can secure a profit regardless of the final result.
How? You do this by placing a back bet on the draw at a higher price than you laid it.
That’s it,
How much is the back stake?
Well, you need to cover the liability of the lay bet and make a profit on the back bet to lock in a profit.
Using your 10 point lay trade; your lay liability if the draw stands is 22 points.
So here you win £10 ( less Betfairs commission) if the game is not a draw, but you risk £22 if it is a draw. 2.2×10 = £22
However you can now back the draw at 5.2 or 4.2 in true betting terms. If you back the draw for £22 what happens?
You can’t lose:-
Draw => you backed at 5.2 and profit was £22 (4.2x£5.20), but lost £22 from the original lay draw trade. You break even.
Not A Draw => You make a small profit between the £10 lay matched stake and the £5.24 lost back stake.
But you really want to make a decent profit regardless of the result, right? So, as the match goes on and a team is leading, the odds on a draw result will increase, see below for a real example;
Now whatever happens you make a profit.
If the match ends in a draw you have backed it at 13.5 (ie 12.5) for £2 meaning you get 12.5 x £2 profit = £25 but lose £10 on the initial lay transaction leaving a £15 profit.
If the match is not a draw you get your £10 lay from your initial bet less the £2 for backing the draw = £8 profit.
Please read through the above a few more times, to get a full understanding.
Little and often is how to start. When you have a bank you can play less and use bigger stakes.
How to decide how much to stake when placing the back trade.
This is easy.
When you place the lay bet initially – make a note your liability. In our earlier example it was £22 if the match ended in a draw.
First of all, find the break even figure, as you did earlier with the odds of 5.2 when the draw is available to back. By dividing the liability by this price so £22 divided by 4.2 (the true multiple of decimal odds) then you reach £5.24 in round figures. So if you back the draw at 5.2 for £5.24 you will break even. You then put a smallish amount on top of this to show a profit whatever the result,
IMPORTANT: REMEMBER THIS STAKE MUST BE DEDUCTED FROM THE INITIAL LAY BET.
IE £10 – £5.24 = £4.76 profit
When do you trade out (back the draw in-play) to lock in your profit?
If the game is 1-0 or 2-0 the odds should be moving in your favour. Wherever possible look to be able to trade at the double of the lay price. So if the lay price was at 4.2 you should look to back out at 8.4 or higher.
When you are more experienced and proficient with the strategy, then you might choose to ride out a 1-0 scoreline to the end of the match. There’s a 9% chance there could be a score draw but if you’ve built up a decent bank then historical data suggests you will be ok LONG TERM. Using this method you should accept you will get caught out sometimes, so when starting out is is better to build your bank by taking profit when it is there, no need to let greed get you broke.
The Easy way to lock-in your profit – get your back bet matched.
The easiest way to make sure you lock in profit is to place your back bet UNMATCHED at the desired odds i.e. double the lay odds.
If you are using Betfair, on the place bets screen you can change the odds to the level you want to trigger (or match) your back bet. So using our example of doubling the lay bet, you would want to lock-in 8.4 and place your back stake in the box.
Once you’ve amended the odds to your desired back odds and entered the stake you can submit the bet. Betfair will indicate the bet is accepted but is ‘unmatched’. This means that there’s not enough liquidity in the market as yet – this is normal before kick-off. This is better and safer than racing to get your bet on when the odds appear.
BE AWARE when the market suspends all unmatched bets are automatically cancelled so you need to place them again when the market resumes.
Now of course here’s the proverbial ‘elephant in the room’; you have to deal with the downside – what to do if no goals are scored?
What if NO GOALS are scored
As a match heads to full time with a no-score draw looming. Having layed the draw at the start, and the lack of a goal, will mean that the prices will not change in your favour. Therefore you cannot back at a bigger price to make a profit.
First of all, remember that only 7% of all matches have had a 0-0 result in the last 15 years. Football is a game of goals, and in many matches, goals are scored very late on..
Should the match look like ending 0-0, you can still back the draw but at a smaller price than you laid limiting your losses.
Knowing when to trade out of a 0-0 match?
Usually try to trade out of a game at when odds are 2.0 if it is headed for a draw. Generally that will be if it is 0-0. Statistics show that most games that are 0-0 after 70 minutes finish that way rather than the other way round. Remember also that only just over 7% of games finish 0-0, these are usually drab affairs and if a game is that way at 70 mins there is a fair chance it will stay that way. A quick glance at the match statistics will indicate how likely a goal is going to be scored. Possession, shots on target, attacks, corners, cards etc.
How Start from scratch
Deposit 500 into Betfair, or your preferred betting exchange. if you don’t have 500 just deposit what you can afford (to lose! remember) and stake accordingly.
Initially look to lay for 20 or around 4% of your bank. If you are successful 20 times you have earnt 400 less some bookmakers commission and the money should be used to stake back so you should have about 300 profit, so your bank of 500 is now 800.
Now increase the lay stake to 30 increasing by 10 points, and again repeat 20 times giving you a further 600 less deductions so around 450 and a bank of 1250.
Next increase the lay stake to 40 still increasing by 10 points but now just 10 successful trades giving you a further 400 (300 after deductions) and the bank is now 1550.
Continue this 10point increase and 10 match roll-up over time, and when your bank hits 5000 you can start trading at 150 to 200.
The formula to success is to start small, get good at what you do and gradually increase the stake and at the same time trading fewer matches.
Beginners Tips
When trading in-play, follow along on your exchange site, not listening or watching on ‘live’ TV.
Betiing exchanges, as with all online bookmakers, will suspend immediately if a goal is scored even though you won’t have seen it on the TV yet.
Use a broadband connection and follow your account screen for changes. You don’t have to be focussed fully all the time, just have it handy and be alert to the match. Football is over 90 minutes so you have plenty of time.
As with any new strategy it is best to start by paper trading, just follow a few games and practice as if you had money involved. Write down what you would lay at, what you back at and see the results. One thing you will learn is not to be too hasty when backing. Quite often the price will increase greatly
Some indicators to help pick the matches (bonus tips))
When you are more familiar with the strategy, or you have more time to analyse the matches, you can select matches based on statistical data of games, which show a probability that they will end in a RESULT. A result being either a home or away win
This isn’t an exact science, unfortunately, but it will help identify the best chance of winning that trade.
- Keep to the rule of trading games under 4.2 lay odds.
- Research historical information regarding the two teams, this helps to spot the most probable home or away win matches.
- Football teams have bogey teams. Check the historical head-to-head (H2H) form for the two teams. Some teams just can’t get a result against another team.
- Find the Average goals between the two teams. Look at the goals for and goals against in the league table and the league tables of previous years and see how many goals the teams averaged per game.
- For example Man Utd play Leeds, Man U have played 20 games and scored 40 goals, an average of 2 goals per game, Leeds have played 20 games and scored 50 goals, they average 2.5 goals a game. A check of the H2H games between the two teams shows there have been no draws in four years, the probability of no goal being scored is looking unlikely.
- Is the team at full strength? A quick check on the clubs website will tell you if there are any significant player injuries which could weaken a team.
- How many draws have the teams had away and at home? If either team has had a tendency of draws, then best leave the match out of your selections.